• Qatar emerges as dealmaker, helping broker US contacts with Iranian regime
• Questions linger over terms of ceasefire, future of Tehran’s nuclear ambitions
DOHA / WASHINGTON: Iran’s ‘strike’ on the US military base in Qatar was carefully calculated to provide an exit from hostilities with Washington and set up a truce with Israel, according to analysts and officials with knowledge of the matter.
The missile launches were signalled well in advance, minimising the risk of injury and giving every opportunity to shoot down the projectiles — resulting in a fireworks display of booms and flashes above Doha.
They followed heavy US strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities at the weekend, a sudden escalation that raised concerns about how Tehran would respond after more than a week of exchanges with Israel.
It would seem that Qatar, located across the Persian Gulf, held the answer in the form of Al Udeid, the Middle East’s biggest US base and headquarters of its regional command.
Targeting a US base, rather than inciting fury, triggered a calm reaction from President Donald Trump, who thanked Iran for giving “early notice”.
Qatar condemned the strikes — Iran’s first on a Gulf country’s territory — but its prime minister said the response would be diplomatic and legal, rather than military.
Then, hours after the attack, Trump announced a ceasefire that both Israel and Iran later said they would accept.
A source with knowledge of the talks said Doha had spoken to Tehran and “persuaded” it to stop fighting.
Trump spoke directly to Netanyahu, and Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and US special envoy Steve Witkoff were involved in the direct and indirect communications with Iran, the official said.
But it was Qatar that helped broker contacts with Tehran. According to a source with knowledge of the talks, Qatari PM Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al-Thani spoke to the Iranians at Washington’s request after the strikes.
Trump told Qatar’s emir that Israel had agreed to a ceasefire, before US Vice President JD Vance spoke to the prime minister “who persuaded Iran to agree to the proposal in a call with the Iranians”, the source said.
Will it last?
A long list of big unanswered questions remains, not least whether any ceasefire can actually hold between two bitter foes, whose years-long rivalry turned into an air war when Israel launches strikes against Iran. This fierce fighting marked the past 12 days of strikes on each other’s territory.
The concerns were underscored on Tuesday as Trump accused both Israel and Iran of violating the fragile truce within hours after it was due to take effect.
Questions also remain about what has actually been agreed to, even as Trump’s declaration raised hopes for the end of a conflict that has prompted fears of a broader regional war.
For example, will the US and Iran revive failed nuclear talks; what will be the fate of Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium, which many experts believe may have survived the US and Israeli bombing campaign.
Signalling a difficult path ahead, it took hours for Israel and Iran to even acknowledge that they had accepted the ceasefire that Trump said he had brokered.
“Now that Trump has declared ‘world peace’, it will be hard for Netanyahu to publicly contradict him,” said Laura Blumenfeld, a Middle East expert at the Johns Hopkins School for Advanced International Studies in Washington.
“Can the ceasefire hold?” asked Dennis Ross, a former Middle East negotiator for Republican and Democratic administrations. “Yes, the Iranians need it and the Israelis have largely now acted against the [Israeli Defence Force’s] target list.”
‘Calibrated response’
Trump administration officials deemed Iran’s response to have been calibrated to avoid further escalation with the US, according to sources familiar with the matter.
Ali Vaez, senior advisor at the International Crisis Group said said the “good relationship between Iran and Qatar is the reason that Iran opted to strike… the Al Udeid base in Qatar”.
“I see this as a continuation of Qatar’s mediation between Iran and the United States, that it has taken this punch as a means of trying to prevent further escalation,” Vaez added.
Wealthy Gulf states in Iran’s immediate neighbourhood, which host a number of US military sites, had been preparing for days for a possible strike.
Last week, dozens of US military aircraft disappeared from the tarmac at Al Udeid, according to satellite images published by Planet Labs PBC and analysed by AFP.
In the hours before the attack, the US embassy in Qatar advised Americans there not to go out, with some other Western embassies echoing the warning.
Shortly before the strikes, air traffic was suspended over Qatar “as part of a set of precautionary measures”, the country’s foreign ministry said.
Chatham House geopolitics specialist Neil Quilliam said the attack was “clearly limited” and “intended to satisfy Iran’s population that its leadership responded forcibly to the US air strikes on Saturday”.
“The Israelis have accomplished much of their objectives … and Iran was looking for an off-ramp, said Jonathan Panikoff, a former deputy US national intelligence officer for the Middle East.
“The US hopes this is the beginning of the end. The challenge is whether there is a strategy for what comes next.”
Published in Dawn, June 25th, 2025
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